Small-scale agriculture is one of the fundamental economic sectors in Chile. An increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change suggest a higher weather risk for the future, with potential consequences for crop choices. These effects are expected to be greater in dryland areas, where producers are more vulnerable to shocks and, therefore, less able to protect themselves against these risks. Using data from the 7th Chilean National Agriculture and Forestry Census, we explore small-scale farmers' cropland decisions as an adaptation strategy to cope with droughts. We use remote sensing data to identify drought events and model the impact of droughts on farmers’ decisions using a multivariate fractional model. This model assumes that farmers allocate shares of land over a crop portfolio. Our findings show that farmers in dryland areas reduce high-risk cropping activities after recent drought shocks, choosing crops with shorter growing periods and lower capital and technological costs, such as cereals. However, we found a different cropland pattern in areas with a higher frequency of droughts. In these locations, farmers prefer legumes and tubers, vineyards, fruits and vegetables. Finally, maize and vineyards are more likely to be grown in places with higher temperatures. Results suggest potential crop adaptation strategies in the face of more arid environments in the future.

小型农业是智利的基本经济部门之一。由于气候变化而导致的极端天气事件的频率和强度增加，表明未来的天气风险更高，对作物选择有潜在的影响。在干旱地区，生产者更容易受到冲击，因此保护自己免受这些风险的能力较弱，预计这些影响在旱地地区会更大。利用来自第七届智利国家农业和林业普查的数据，我们探索了小规模农民的耕地决策，作为应对干旱的适应策略。我们使用遥感数据来识别干旱事件，并使用多元分数模型来模拟干旱对农民决策的影响。该模型假设农民将土地份额分配给作物组合。我们的研究结果表明，干旱地区的农民在最近的干旱冲击后减少了高风险的种植活动，选择了生长期较短，资本和技术成本较低的作物，例如谷物。但是，我们在干旱频率较高的地区发现了不同的耕地格局。在这些地方，农民更喜欢豆类和块茎，葡萄园，水果和蔬菜。最后，玉米和葡萄园更有可能在温度较高的地方种植。结果表明，面对未来更干旱的环境，潜在的作物适应策略。我们在干旱频率较高的地区发现了不同的耕地格局。在这些地方，农民更喜欢豆类和块茎，葡萄园，水果和蔬菜。最后，玉米和葡萄园更有可能在温度较高的地方种植。结果表明，面对未来更干旱的环境，潜在的作物适应策略。我们在干旱频率较高的地区发现了不同的耕地格局。在这些地方，农民更喜欢豆类和块茎，葡萄园，水果和蔬菜。最后，玉米和葡萄园更有可能在温度较高的地方种植。结果表明，面对未来更干旱的环境，潜在的作物适应策略。