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Impact of climate change on the distribution of Sal species
Ecological Informatics ( IF 5.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101244
Shambhu Nath Mishra , Hari Shankar Gupta , Nitin Kulkarni

The Sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn.) of south and northern continental Southeast Asia form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous forests. These Sal forest ecosystems are the source of ecosystem services, besides harbouring rich biodiversity. The model results show that projected climate change impacts on Sal species have the potential to trigger significant ecosystem-level responses, important ramification on “Forest Management Regime” and dependent socio-economic life of Jharkhand. This paper has made an assessment of the most probable distribution zones of Shorea robusta for current (2020) and future climatic scenarios (2040) in Jharkhand using Maxent Species Distribution Modeling. It further assessed the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution area of Sal for all three agro-climatic sub-zone IV, sub-zone V and sub-zone VI in Jharkhand state under varying climatic condition. The model results display that “Mean temperature of the Driest quarter” (19.1%) ranging from 13.80 Degree Celsius to 30.40 Degree Celsius along with “Precipitation of Driest Quarter for Jharkhand” (15.8%) ranging from 14 mm to 39 mm emerged to be the most critical parameters for the distribution of S. robusta for the present climatic scenario. From the modeling, the AUC = 0.769 for the present scenario with a standard deviation of 0.045 provides an aggregate reliable measure for species performance. The result of the study shows comparable the probability distribution of S. robusta in Jharkhand to be about 13,672 sq. km which nearly match with the distribution of Sal in Jharkhand i.e. 13,314.47 sq. km with the India State Forest Report 2019.



中文翻译:

气候变化对Sal物种分布的影响

东南亚南部和北部大陆的婆罗双树(Shora Robusta Gaertn。)在干燥的落叶,湿润的落叶林中形成单一种冠层。这些萨尔森林生态系统除了拥有丰富的生物多样性外,还提供生态系统服务。模型结果表明,预计的气候变化对婆罗双树物种的影响有可能引发重大的生态系统级反应,对“森林管理制度”的重要影响以及贾坎德邦依赖的社会经济生活。本文评估了浓脂的最可能分布区域使用Maxent物种分布模型对贾坎德邦当前(2020年)和未来气候情景(2040年)进行分析。它进一步评估了贾坎德邦在不同气候条件下,气候变化对四个农业气候分区IV,分区V和分区VI的Sal潜在分布区域的影响。模型结果显示,从13摄氏度到30.40摄氏度的“最干燥区平均温度”(19.1%)以及从14毫米到39毫米的“贾坎德邦最干燥区的降水”(15.8%)出现了。稳健链球菌分布的最关键参数就目前的气候情况而言。根据建模,当前情景的AUC = 0.769,标准偏差为0.045,为物种表现提供了可靠的总体度量。的研究显示可比的概率分布结果S.罗布斯塔在恰尔肯德邦约为13672平方公里,几乎与萨尔在恰尔肯德邦的分布相匹配,即13,314.47平方公里,与印度国家森林报告2019。

更新日期:2021-02-12
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