Predicting or deducing war outcomes is the basis of military strategy formulation. Considering the high information uncertainty and complex influencing factors of modern wars, we applied a fuzzy influence diagram (FID) to realize the macroscopic prediction of war outcomes. In particular, we identified multidimensional factors that influence war outcomes in a relatively comprehensive and practical manner, thereby obtaining a relatively complete FID containing 24 nodes, with the value node “combat outcome” as the core. Subsequently, we performed a simulation analysis for a hypothetical war scenario to demonstrate the specific application and applicability of the proposed FID model. This study expands the prediction methods of war outcomes, and demonstrates that an FID can be feasibly applied in an uncertain battlefield environment to realize the prediction and risk assessment of war outcomes. Moreover, this approach can be used to analyze prewar decision making. The findings highlight that combat participants should attempt to further improve their military technology and combat effectiveness to gain combat advantage.

预测或推断战争结果是制定军事战略的基础。考虑到现代战争的高度信息不确定性和复杂的影响因素，我们应用模糊影响图（FID）来实现对战争结果的宏观预测。特别是，我们确定了以相对全面和实际的方式影响战争结果的多维因素，从而获得了一个包含24个节点的相对完整的FID，其中以价值节点“战斗结果”为核心。随后，我们对假设的战争场景进行了仿真分析，以证明所提出的FID模型的特定应用和适用性。这项研究扩展了战争结果的预测方法，并且证明了FID可以在不确定的战场环境中可行地实现，以实现对战争结果的预测和风险评估。而且，这种方法可以用来分析战前的决策。调查结果强调，战斗参与者应尝试进一步改善其军事技术和战斗力，以获得战斗优势。