The dynamic nature of rock mass damage during mining activity generates seismic events. This article shows, how the time window for the database influences on the actual status of seismic hazard for the longwall mining area in one of Polish coal mines using Gutenberg–Richter law. A time window of 10–90 days was assumed with similar or shorter prediction times forecast on its basis. Additionally, for each seismic database the hazard prediction accuracy was determined. The analysis shows that the 10- and 20-day base periods are too short for prediction purposes. The higher-energy seismic events sometimes do not occur within such a short period of time, preventing regression analysis and parameter b determination. The best time window for the seismic hazard prognosis in given geological and mining conditions seems to be 30–50 days. The shorter periods cause the underestimation of the seismic hazard prognosis. Low range of tremor energies and the relatively low number of seismic events with high energy cause the low probability of prediction of the seismic mining events (10–40%) of the energy of min. 10⁶ J, even for longer day base periods. The accuracy of hazard prediction, obtained from each seismic database period, was determined, using the developed coefficient of hazard autoregression C_N. The analysis of the Gutenberg–Richter distribution should serve as complementary tool of seismic hazard prediction only.

采矿活动期间岩体破坏的动态性质会产生地震事件。本文说明，使用古腾堡-里希特定律，数据库的时间窗口如何影响波兰某煤矿长壁开采区的地震危险性的实际状况。假定时间窗口为10-90天，并在此基础上预测相似或较短的预测时间。另外，对于每个地震数据库，确定了危害预测的准确性。分析表明，10天和20天的基准期对于预测目的而言太短了。高能地震事件有时不会在这么短的时间内发生，从而阻止了回归分析和参数b决心。在给定的地质和采矿条件下，地震危险预后的最佳时间窗似乎是30–50天。较短的时间段会导致地震危险预测的低估。地震能量的范围较小，而能量较高的地震事件数量相对较少，因此，预测最小能量的地震采矿事件的概率较低（10％至40％）。10 ⁶  J，甚至更长的基准日。使用开发的危险自回归系数C _N，确定从每个地震数据库周期获得的危险预测的准确性。Gutenberg-Richter分布的分析仅应作为地震危险性预测的补充工具。