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Expected Labor Force Activity and Retirement Behavior by Age, Gender, and Labor Force History
Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2017-01-01 , DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2017.1358125
James E. Ciecka 1 , Gary R. Skoog 2
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT We find and estimate probability mass functions for labor force related random variables. Complete life expectancy (by age, gender, and two years of labor force history) is decomposed into expected years of future labor force activity and inactivity as well as into expected years until final separation from the labor force and expected years in retirement. We also calculate expected age at retirement and expected years in retirement for people who actually retire. Two consecutive years of inactivity, especially in middle age, is a key indicator for both men and women when accounting for future labor force participation and retirement. For example, women (men) who are out of the labor force at age 49 and again out of the labor force at age 50, can expect to be in the labor force seven (eight) fewer years in the future than their counterparts who were in the labor force at ages 49 and 50. In addition, they have expected retirement ages 4.5–5.5 years younger than their active counterparts.

中文翻译:

按年龄,性别和劳动力历史记录的预期劳动力活动和退休行为

摘要我们找到并估计与劳动力有关的随机变量的概率质量函数。完整的预期寿命(按年龄,性别和两年的劳动力历史)分解为未来劳动力活动和不活跃的预期年,以及直到与劳动力最终分离和退休的预期年为止的预期年。我们还计算了实际退休人员的预期退休年龄和预期退休年龄。在考虑未来的劳动力参与和退休时,连续两年的不活动,特别是在中年,是男女的关键指标。例如,在49岁时退出劳动力市场并在50岁时退出劳动力市场的女性(男性),
更新日期:2017-01-01
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