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Reasoning under Uncertainty: Maximum Likelihood Heuristic in a Problem with a Random Transfer
Journal of Statistics Education Pub Date : 2020-05-03 , DOI: 10.1080/10691898.2020.1781003
Yael Tal 1 , Ida Kukliansky 2
Affiliation  

Abstract The aim of this study is to explore the judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty. The reasoning associated with the task having an additional condition of uncertainty has not been discussed in previous studies. The 66 undergraduate students, participants in this study, used an analytic process for the task without an additional condition of uncertainty and a heuristic for the task with it. The findings show that they focused on the most likely event and derived a prediction based on this event that, in some cases, led them to answer incorrectly. The educational implications include a gradual method for developing better intuition for the students to help them tackle similar problems in the future.

中文翻译:

不确定性下的推理:随机转移问题中的最大似然启发法

摘要这项研究的目的是探索概率任务中需要比较两个概率的判断和推理,无论是否引入额外的不确定性。在先前的研究中尚未讨论与具有额外不确定性条件的任务相关的推理。参加本研究的66名本科生使用分析过程完成任务,而没有其他不确定性条件,并且对任务进行了启发式分析。研究结果表明,他们专注于最可能发生的事件,并基于该事件得出了预测,在某些情况下,导致他们做出了错误的回答。教育意义包括逐步培养学生更好的直觉,以帮助他们将来解决类似问题的方法。
更新日期:2020-05-03
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