ABSTRACT

This paper models domestic (internal) and cross-border dynamics of instability through the lens of ‘ABM modelling–AfriLand-Rebel’. It examines the post-Gaddafi Libya and its export of instability in the region. It gives a useful balance of analysis on socio-cultural and environmental dynamics which transcend national boundaries, such as the influx and out-flux of refugee flows, insurgency, transnational conflict and crime in the Sahel. It examines the broader regional implications of conflict due to refugee flows, proliferation of weapons and spill over effects of insecurity. Methodologically, it employs the use of descriptive analysis relying solely on secondary information for data generation and analysis. The paper therefore posits that ensuring future stability in the region would require investments in education, infrastructure, poverty alleviation and good governance initiatives, all of which are critical to addressing the broader causes and spread of insecurity and violent extremism in the Sahel region.

摘要

本文通过“ABM 建模-AfriLand-Rebel”的镜头模拟国内（内部）和跨境不稳定动态。它研究了卡扎菲后的利比亚及其在该地区的不稳定输出。它对超越国界的社会文化和环境动态进行了有益的平衡分析，例如萨赫勒地区难民潮、叛乱、跨国冲突和犯罪的流入和流出。它研究了由于难民潮、武器扩散和不安全的溢出效应而导致的冲突对更广泛的区域影响。在方法论上，它使用描述性分析，仅依靠辅助信息进行数据生成和分析。因此，该文件认为，确保该地区未来的稳定需要对教育、基础设施、