This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the European (Monetary) Union effect on trade. The high dimensionality of the parameter space when estimating gravity equations with many dummy variables results in standard hypothesis tests with a large Type I (false positive) error. Bayesian methods are able to handle this problem; they also provide a principled method of model selection that can be applied to different specifications of the dummy variables. Bayesian model selection tests prefer our most unrestricted dummy specification, which includes asymmetric bilateral effects, as well as time-varying, country-specific factors. Our estimate shows a zero Euro effect on trade, but a 14.8% increase in imports for a member of the European Union during 1980–2004.

中文翻译：

---

欧元区货币联盟效应的贝叶斯估计

本文使用贝叶斯方法来估计欧洲（货币）联盟对贸易的影响。在估计具有许多虚拟变量的重力方程时，参数空间的高维会导致标准假设检验具有较大的 I 类（假阳性）错误。贝叶斯方法能够处理这个问题；它们还提供了一种原则性的模型选择方法，可以应用于不同规格的虚拟变量。贝叶斯模型选择测试更喜欢我们最不受限制的虚拟规范，其中包括不对称的双边效应，以及随时间变化的国家特定因素。我们的估计表明，欧元对贸易的影响为零，但 1980-2004 年欧盟成员国的进口增加了 14.8%。