We developed an incremental growth-at-temperature model to predict hatch timing for lake whitefish under varying incubation temperatures. The model extends earlier approaches by incorporating a temperature-dependence for development stage at hatching. Testing using experimentally reared embryos from Lakes Huron and Simcoe demonstrates improved predictive accuracy compared to previous models for asymmetrically varying thermal regimes that mimic aspects of those encountered under real-world conditions. The simple calibration of the model to different populations and its ability to predict observed phenomena such as thermally-induced mass hatching and hatching synchronization makes it a useful tool for the evaluation of thermal impacts from industrial discharges and climate change.

我们开发了一个递增的常温生长模型，以预测不同孵化温度下湖白鲑的孵化时间。该模型通过在孵化阶段将温度依赖性纳入开发阶段来扩展了早期方法。与以前的非对称变化热态模型相比，使用休伦湖和西姆科湖实验饲养的胚胎进行的测试显示出更高的预测准确性，该模型模仿了在现实条件下遇到的情况。该模型针对不同人群的简单校准及其预测观察到的现象（如热诱导的孵化和孵化同步）的能力使其成为评估工业排放和气候变化对热影响的有用工具。