An existing steady state model of lake phosphorus (P) budgets has been adapted to allow reconstruction of long-term average historic lake water total phosphorus (TP) concentrations using lake sediment records of P burial. This model can be applied without site-specific parameterisation, thus potentially having universal application. In principle, it is applicable at any site where there is both a sediment P burial record and knowledge of the current water budget, although we advise caution applying it to problematic sediment records. Tested at six published case study sites, modelled lake water TP concentrations agree well with water-quality monitoring data, and limited testing finds good agreement with wholly independent diatom inferred lake water TP. Our findings, together with a review of the literature, suggest that well preserved lake sediments can usefully record a long-term average P burial rate from which the long-term mean lake water TP can be reliably estimated. These lake water TP reconstructions can provide meaningful site-specific reference values to support decision making in lake eutrophication management, including establishing targets for lake restoration.

现有的湖泊磷（P）预算稳态模型已经过调整，可以使用湖泊沉积物的P埋藏记录来重建长期平均历史湖泊水总磷（TP）浓度。该模型可以在没有特定于站点的参数设置的情况下应用，因此可能具有普遍应用。原则上，它适用于既有沉积物P埋葬记录又有当前水预算知识的任何地点，尽管我们建议谨慎地将其应用于有问题的沉积物记录。在六个公开的案例研究现场进行了测试，模拟的湖泊水TP浓度与水质监测数据吻合良好，有限的测试发现与完全独立的硅藻推断的湖泊水TP吻合良好。我们的发现以及对文献的回顾，这表明保存完好的湖泊沉积物可以有效地记录长期平均P埋藏率，据此可以可靠地估算长期平均湖泊水TP。这些湖泊水TP重建可以提供有意义的针对特定地点的参考值，以支持湖泊富营养化管理的决策，包括建立湖泊恢复的目标。