Future climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) was examined using a high-resolution regional ocean model (10-km mesh) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The range of uncertainty in future projections was estimated from ensemble simulations. Projected results indicated no significant change in the Kuroshio net transport and the latitude of the Kuroshio Extension under both RCP scenarios; the changes were within the range of variability associated with the present climate. Projected sea surface temperature (SST) increased by as much as several degrees Celsius, especially in SST fronts, including the subarctic frontal zone. The significant increase of SST east of Japan was attributed to the northward expansion of the northern part of the subtropical gyre in response to basin-scale atmospheric changes. The projected area of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk decreased in both RCP scenarios. The projected offshore sea-level rise was larger in the subtropical gyre and smaller in the subpolar gyre. The sea-level rise along the coast of Japan, in contrast, showed no significant spatial variation. The mean sea-level rise along the coast of Japan was mostly comparable to the global mean sea-level rise.

在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下，使用高分辨率区域海洋模型（10公里网格），对21世纪末（2081-2100年）西北太平洋西部的未来气候变化进行了研究。未来预测的不确定性范围是通过整体模拟估算的。预计结果表明，在两种RCP情景下，黑潮的净运输量和黑潮扩展的纬度都没有显着变化。变化在与当前气候相关的可变性范围内。预计海表温度（SST）升高了几摄氏度，尤其是在SST前沿，包括北极副额带。日本东部SST的显着增加归因于亚热带回旋区北部向北扩展，以响应盆地规模的大气变化。在两种RCP方案中，鄂霍次克海的预计海冰面积均减少。预计的近海海平面上升在亚热带环流中较大，而在亚极环流中较小。相反，日本沿海的海平面上升没有显示出明显的空间变化。日本沿海的平均海平面上升幅度与全球平均海平面上升幅度基本相当。