This article examines the impact of war on trade between 1830 and 1913, that is, during the so-called first wave of globalization. It has been argued that one of the main reasons for the rapid integration of commodity and factor markets that took place during this period was the peaceful character of the post-Napoleonic nineteenth century. However, little research has been conducted on the actual impact of wars on international trade during this period. Previous research on the link between war and trade in general has found that war reduces trade both between belligerents and between belligerents and third parties (or neutrals). Apart from a handful of country case studies, this research has focused almost exclusively on the period before or after the peaceful nineteenth century. Our results show that, in the nineteenth century, the negative influence of war on trade was mainly limited to the belligerent economies, while belligerent–neutral trade was either unaffected or even increased during times of war. Also, in contrast to the findings of research on twentieth-century wars, we find that nineteenth-century wars had a strictly contemporaneous impact on trade, with a return to normalcy ensuing shortly after the cessation of hostilities.

中文翻译：

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和平世纪的战争与贸易：第一波全球化浪潮期间国家间战争对双边贸易流动的影响，1830-1913†

本文考察了 1830 年至 1913 年间，即所谓的第一次全球化浪潮期间战争对贸易的影响。有人认为，这一时期商品和要素市场迅速整合的主要原因之一是后拿破仑 19 世纪的和平特征。然而，关于这一时期战争对国际贸易的实际影响的研究很少。先前对战争与贸易之间联系的总体研究发现，战争减少了交战国之间以及交战国与第三方（或中立国）之间的贸易。除了少数国家案例研究外，这项研究几乎完全集中在和平的 19 世纪之前或之后的时期。我们的结果表明，在 19 世纪，战争对贸易的负面影响主要限于交战经济体，而交战中立贸易在战争时期要么不受影响，要么甚至有所增加。此外，与 20 世纪战争的研究结果相反，我们发现 19 世纪的战争对贸易产生了严格的同期影响，在敌对行动停止后不久恢复正常。