ABSTRACT

In complex tropical forest frontier landscapes, ecosystem service (ES) models are essential tools to test impacts of different land schemes on people. Considering several factors of supply, demand and flow and focusing on local stakeholders, we developed nine ES models using Bayesian networks and applied them in different land scenarios in Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region. We found land use and tenure as well as demand for specific products to be the key factors determining final ES outcomes. While forested lands have high regulating and overall balanced ES bundles, mixed agricultural lands provide subsistence and commercial products as well as better environmental education opportunities. By contrast, commercial agricultural concessions strongly limit ES outcomes for local communities. As our models reveal more distinct impacts of land policy scenarios in a homogeneous setting, where demand is better accounted for, we recommend their use for spatially explicit analyses of forest frontier landscapes.

摘要

在复杂的热带森林边界景观中，生态系统服务（ES）模型是测试不同土地计划对人的影响的重要工具。考虑到供应，需求和流量的几个因素，并以当地利益相关者为重点，我们使用贝叶斯网络开发了9种ES模型，并将其应用于缅甸Tanintharyi地区的不同土地情景。我们发现土地使用和保有权以及对特定产品的需求是决定最终ES结果的关键因素。虽然林地具有较高的监管和总体平衡的ES捆绑，但混合的农业用地可提供生计和商业产品，并提供更好的环境教育机会。相比之下，商业性农业特许权极大地限制了当地社区的ES结果。