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Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-04 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001803
Wenmin Man 1, 2 , Meng Zuo 1 , Tianjun Zhou 1, 2, 3 , John T. Fasullo 4 , Ingo Bethke 5 , Xiaolong Chen 1, 2 , Liwei Zou 1, 2 , Bo Wu 1, 2
Affiliation  

The global monsoon system is of exceptional socioeconomic importance owing to its impacts on two‐thirds of the globe’s population. Major volcanic eruptions strongly influence global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation change. By using 60 plausible eruption scenarios sampled from reconstructed volcanic proxies over the past 2,500 years, 21st century volcanic influences on GLM precipitation projections are examined with an Earth system model under a moderate emission scenario. The decadal‐scale ensemble spread with realistic eruptions (VOLC) increases by 17.5% and 20.1% compared to no‐volcanic (NO‐VOLC) and constant background‐volcanic (VOLC‐CONST) scenarios, respectively. Compared with NO‐VOLC, the centennial mean VOLC GLM precipitation shows a 10% overall reduction and regionally, Asia is the most impacted. Changes in atmospheric circulation in the aftermath of large volcanic eruptions match the global warming response patterns well with opposite sign, with the North American monsoon precipitation enhanced following large volcanic eruptions, which is in sharp contrast to the robust decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall. Volcanic activity could delay the time of emergence of anthropogenic influence by five years on average over about 60% of the GLM area. Our results demonstrate the importance of statistical representation of potential volcanism for the projections of future monsoon variability. Quantifying volcanic impacts on regional climate projections and their socioeconomic influences on infrastructure planning, food security, and disaster management should be a priority of future work.

中文翻译:

火山爆发对未来全球季风降水变化的潜在影响

全球季风系统由于对全球三分之二的人口产生影响,因此具有特殊的社会经济意义。重大火山喷发强烈影响全球陆地季风(GLM)的降水变化。通过使用过去2500年中从重建的火山代理采样的60个可能的喷发情景,利用地球系统模型在中等排放情景下研究了21世纪火山对GLM降水预测的影响。与无火山(NO-VOLC)和恒定背景火山(VOLC-CONST)情景相比,具有实际爆发的年代际尺度合奏扩散(VOLC)分别增加了17.5%和20.1%。与NO-VOLC相比,VOLC GLM的百年平均降水量显示总体减少了10%,而在区域内,亚洲受到的影响最大。大型火山爆发后的大气环流变化与全球变暖响应模式完全相反,而大型火山爆发后北美季风降水增加,这与亚洲季风降水的强劲减少形成鲜明对比。火山活动可能使人为影响的出现时间平均延迟了GLM区域约60%的五年。我们的结果证明了潜在火山活动的统计表示对于预测未来季风变化的重要性。量化火山对区域气候预测的影响及其对基础设施规划,粮食安全和灾害管理的社会经济影响,应该是未来工作的重点。
更新日期:2021-03-11
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