Canopy forming macroalgae are declining globally due to climate change and the identification of refuges for these habitats is crucial for their conservation. This is particularly pertinent in ocean warming hotspots where significant range contractions of kelp have occurred and are projected to continue.

We developed a stacked urchin-kelp species distribution model (SDM) to predict climate refugia for kelp (Ecklonia radiata) in an ocean warming hotspot, south-eastern Australia. The optimal stacked-SDM incorporated biotic and abiotic explanatory covariates and was validated using an independent dataset. Density of the urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii, summer bottom temperature and photosynthetically available radiation at the seabed were significant predictors of kelp cover, highlighting the physiological and ecological influence of these variables on the distribution of kelp.

Our optimal stacked-SDM predicted three spatially distinct refuge areas, where kelp occurs in deeper waters than surrounding seascapes. The presence of kelp at two of these refuge areas was confirmed using independent data. The identification of these refuge areas is crucial for conservation, as they are likely to facilitate the persistence of ecologically and economically important kelp forests as waters warm in shallow areas and kelp retreat to depth under climate change. Furthermore, identification of refugia will enable proactive spatial planning that prioritises new locations for protection to ensure that key kelp habitats can persist in a future of increasing stress.

由于气候变化，冠层形成的大型藻类正在全球范围内减少，为这些栖息地确定避难所对其保护至关重要。这在海洋变暖热点中特别相关，在该地区海带发生了大范围的收缩，而且预计还会继续。

我们开发了一个堆叠的海胆海带物种分布模型（SDM），以预测澳大利亚东南部海洋变暖热点海带（Ecklonia radiata）的气候变迁。最佳堆叠SDM结合了生物和非生物解释性协变量，并使用独立的数据集进行了验证。海胆的密度Centrostephanus rodgersii在海底，夏季底部温度和光合有效辐射是海带盖的显著预测，突出了生理和海带的分配这些变量的影响生态。

我们的最佳堆叠SDM预测了三个空间上不同的避难区，其中海带发生在比周围海景更深的水中。使用独立数据确认了在两个避难区中存在海带。这些庇护区的确定对于保护至关重要，因为随着浅水区变暖和海带在气候变化下退缩到深处，它们可能促进具有重要生态和经济意义的海带森林的持久性。此外，识别避难所将能够进行积极的空间规划，优先考虑新的保护位置，以确保关键的海带生境能够在压力不断增加的未来持续存在。