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On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2
Environmental Research ( IF 8.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110818
Oliver Gutiérrez-Hernández 1 , Luis V García 2
Affiliation  

This paper addresses the effects of atmospheric conditions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. For this purpose, we assess the limitations of bioclimatic correlative models to explain the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of medical geography. Overall, there is a broad consensus that the global distribution of COVID-19 is not random but conditioned by environmental drivers. However, as the COVID-19 distribution becomes global, including tropical climates, the evidence reveals that atmospheric conditions explain, at most, only a limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the usefulness of approaches based on bioclimatic envelopes is in question since the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 seems to be the anthroposphere's non-stationary environment. In this sense, there is a need to clarify further the role of different transmission routes at multiple scales and outdoor and indoor environments beyond bioclimatic envelopes. At this time, the possible influence of the weather in COVID-19 spread is not sufficient to be taken into account in public health policies. Hence, until reliable bioclimatic envelopes of SARS-CoV-2, if any, are found, caution should be exercised when reporting, as this could have unforeseen consequences.



中文翻译:

论 SARS-CoV-2 生物气候相关模型的实用性

本文讨论了大气条件对 SARS-CoV-2 冠状病毒及其相关疾病 COVID-19 传播的影响。为此,我们评估了生物气候相关模型的局限性,以解释 SARS-CoV-2 在医学地理学背景下的地理分布。总体而言,人们普遍认为,COVID-19 的全球分布不是随机的,而是受到环境驱动因素的影响。然而,随着 COVID-19 分布遍及全球,包括热带气候,证据表明大气条件最多只能解释 SARS-CoV-2 的有限时空动态。因此,基于生物气候包络线的方法的有效性受到质疑,因为 COVID-19 传播的主要途径似乎是人类圈的非静态环境。从这个意义上说,有必要进一步阐明不同传播途径在多个尺度以及生物气候范围之外的室外和室内环境中的作用。目前,公共卫生政策中还不足以充分考虑天气对 COVID-19 传播的可能影响。因此,在找到可靠的 SARS-CoV-2 生物气候包膜(如果有)之前,报告时应谨慎行事,因为这可能会产生不可预见的后果。

更新日期:2021-02-18
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