Abstract This paper examines asymmetries in the J-curve effects of real exchange rates on Kenya’s trade balance by using panel data for bilateral trade with 30 trading partners. The data covers the period from 2006q1 to 2018q4 and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique, under both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks, is applied. This paper departs from previous studies by using a modified version of the standard trade balance model, which is more suited for bilateral trade analyses, and by incorporating nonlinearities. The findings of the PMG estimation based on the assumption of symmetric exchange rate effects reveals J-curve effects in only 7 bilateral trade relations. However, when the estimation is performed assuming asymmetric effects, the J-curve effects are evident in 13 cases. Long-run and short-run asymmetries are also confirmed and it is established that a simultaneous bilateral real depreciation of the exchange rate boosts the long-run trade balance. The implication of these findings is that a devaluation policy can be used to raise competitiveness of Kenya’s exports in the long-run.

中文翻译：

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不对称 J 曲线现象：肯尼亚与她的贸易伙伴

摘要 本文通过使用与 30 个贸易伙伴双边贸易的面板数据，研究了实际汇率对肯尼亚贸易收支的 J 曲线效应的不对称性。数据涵盖了 2006 年第一季度到 2018 年第四季度的数据，并在线性和非线性 ARDL 框架下应用了合并平均组 (PMG) 估计技术。本文与之前的研究不同，它使用了标准贸易平衡模型的修改版本，该模型更适合双边贸易分析，并结合了非线性。基于对称汇率效应假设的 PMG 估计结果仅揭示了 7 个双边贸易关系中的 J 曲线效应。然而，在假设不对称效应的情况下进行估计时，J 曲线效应在 13 种情况下很明显。长期和短期的不对称也得到证实，同时双边实际汇率贬值促进了长期贸易平衡。这些发现的含义是，从长远来看，可以使用贬值政策来提高肯尼亚出口的竞争力。