The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world to implement unprecedented lockdowns, mandating businesses to shut down for extended periods of time. Previous studies have modeled the impact of disruptions to the economy at static and dynamic settings. This study develops a model to fulfil the need to account for the sustained disruption resulting from the extended shutdown of business operations. Using a persistent inoperability input-output model (PIIM), we are able to show that (1) sectors that suffer higher levels of inoperability during quarantine period may recover faster depending on their resilience; (2) initially unaffected sectors can suffer inoperability levels higher than directly affected sectors over time; (3) the economic impact on other regions not under lockdown is also significant.

中文翻译：

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封锁的经济影响：持久的不可操作性输入输出方法

COVID-19大流行迫使世界各国政府实施史无前例的封锁，迫使企业长时间关闭。先前的研究已经模拟了在静态和动态环境下中断对经济的影响。这项研究开发了一个模型，以满足因长时间关闭业务运营而造成的持续中断的需求。使用持久性不可操作性投入产出模型（PIIM），我们可以证明：（1）在隔离期间遭受较高不可操作性影响的扇区，其恢复力取决于其恢复能力；（2）随着时间的流逝，最初未受影响的部门的可操作性水平可能会高于直接受影响的部门；（3）经济对未受封锁的其他地区的影响也很大。