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Evaluating the climate resilience in terms of profitability and risk for a long-term corn-soybean-wheat rotation under different treatment systems
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100284
Rasu Eeswaran , A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi , Steven R. Miller

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather events impose significant challenges to the crop production systems throughout the world. Alternative agricultural treatment systems have been proposed to manage these challenges. However, these treatments have not been sufficiently studied for their ability to improve climate resilience, especially in terms of profitability and risk management, which are important metrics of resilience that determine farm-level adaptation. Hence, we evaluated the climate resilience of three alternative agricultural treatments for a long-term (27-years) rotation of corn-soybean-wheat, cast in the temperate humid climate of Southwest Michigan, United States. The three alternative treatments include no-till, reduced input, and US Department of Agriculture (USDA) certified organic. These are compared to the conventional treatment along with the same crop rotation. Means and volatility of expected gross margins and risk preferences were used as the evaluation metrics. Results demonstrate that the net revenues from the USDA certified organic are largely expected to exceed the net revenues of conventional treatment. Also, for all commodities, organic treatment may exert greater annual stability in revenues. The no-till treatment dominates conventional and reduced input practices in expected annual net revenues with a relatively lower risk to those revenues in light of climate extremes. Furthermore, the organic and no-till treatments showed appropriateness to cater to a range of farmers with different risk preferences. Therefore, the organic and the no-till treatments were deemed climate-resilient. The conventional and reduced input treatments did not show resilience thus will be vulnerable to the changing climate. Despite the economic support for adopting resilient practices, growers have been slow to adopt new approaches. We suggest future research needs for understanding grower motivations for adopting climate-resilient practices and consider policy implications.



中文翻译:

根据不同处理系统下玉米-大豆-小麦长期轮换的获利能力和风险评估气候适应能力

气候多变性和极端天气事件的增加对全世界的农作物生产系统提出了严峻的挑战。已经提出了替代性农业处理系统来应对这些挑战。但是,对于这些处理方法提高气候适应能力的能力,尤其是在获利能力和风险管理方面,还没有进行充分的研究,而盈利能力和风险管理是决定农场水平适应性的重要适应能力指标。因此,我们评估了在美国西南密歇根州的温带潮湿气候下种植的玉米-大豆-小麦的长期(27年)轮换的三种替代农业处理方法的气候适应力。三种替代处理方法包括免耕,减少投入以及美国农业部(USDA)认证的有机食品。将这些与常规处理以及相同的作物轮作相比较。预期毛利率和风险偏好的均值和波幅被用作评估指标。结果表明,USDA认证有机产品的净收入在很大程度上有望超过传统疗法的净收入。此外,对于所有商品,有机处理可能会在收入方面发挥更大的年度稳定性。免耕处理在常规的和减少的投入实践中占预期的年度净收入的主导地位,鉴于极端气候,这些耕作的风险相对较低。此外,有机和免耕处理显示适合各种风险偏好不同的农民。因此,有机和免耕处理被认为具有气候适应性。常规和减少投入的处理方法没有显示出适应力,因此容易受到气候变化的影响。尽管在经济上支持采取有弹性的做法,但种植者在采用新方法方面进展缓慢。我们建议未来进行研究,以了解种植者采用适应气候变化的做法的动机,并考虑政策含义。

更新日期:2021-02-15
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