This study explores the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion in an agricultural catchment in eastern Canada. The Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) was used to calculate the sediment yields from the Acadie River Catchment for the historical 1996–2019 period. The runoff variables of the MUSLE were obtained from a physically based hydrological model previously built and validated for the catchment. Then, the hydrological model was perturbed using climate change projections and used to assess the climate sensitivity of the sediment yield. Two runoff types representing possible modes of soil erosion were considered. While type A represents a baseline case in which soil erosion occurs due to surface runoff only, type B is more realistic since it assumed that tile drains also contribute to sediment export, but with a varying efficiency throughout the year. The calibration and validation of the tile efficiency factors against measurements in 2009–2015 for type B suggest that tile drains export the sediments with an efficiency of 20% and 50% in freezing and non-freezing conditions, respectively. Results indicate that tile drains account for 39% of the total annual sediment yield in the present climate. The timing of highest soil erosion shifts from spring to winter in response to warming and wetting, which can be explained by increasing winter runoff caused by shifting snowmelt timing towards winter, a greater number of mid-winter melt events as well as increasing rainfall fractions. The large uncertainties in precipitation projections cascade down to the erosion uncertainties in the more realistic type B, with annual sediment yield increasing or decreasing according to the precipitation uncertainty in a given climate change scenario. This study demonstrates the benefit of conservation and no-till pratices, which could reduce the annual sediment yields by 20% and 60%, respectively, under any given climate change scenario.

这项研究探讨了加拿大东部一个农业流域的气候变化对土壤侵蚀的潜在影响。修改后的通用土壤流失方程（MUSLE）用于计算1996-2019年历史时期阿卡迪河集水区的沉积物产量。MUSLE的径流变量是从以前基于物理的水文模型建立的，并针对流域进行了验证。然后，使用气候变化预测对水文模型进行扰动，并将其用于评估沉积物产量的气候敏感性。考虑了两种可能代表土壤侵蚀方式的径流类型。尽管类型A代表基线情况，其中仅由于地表径流而发生土壤侵蚀，但类型B更现实，因为它假设瓦斯排水也有助于沉积物的输出，但全年的效率各不相同。针对2009年至2015年B类瓷砖的效率系数进行的校准和验证表明，瓷砖排水沟在冻结和非冻结条件下的出口沉积物效率分别为20％和50％。结果表明，在当前气候下，瓷砖排水沟占全年沉积物总产量的39％。最高的土壤侵蚀发生时间是由于变暖和潮湿而从春季到冬季的变化，这可以解释为融雪时间向冬季转移导致冬季径流增加，冬季融化事件增多以及降雨分数增加。降水量预估的较大不确定性会降到更现实的B型侵蚀的不确定性上，在给定的气候变化情景下，年降水量的增加或减少取决于降水的不确定性。这项研究表明，在任何给定的气候变化情景下，保护性耕作和免耕耕作的好处都可以使年沉积物产量分别减少20％和60％。