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Numerical simulations of dust storms originated from dried lakes in central and southwest Asia: The case of Aral Sea and Sistan Basin
Aeolian Research ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.aeolia.2021.100679
Sara Karami , Nasim Hossein Hamzeh , Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis , Alireza Rashki , Khan Alam , Abbas Ranjbar

Ephemeral and dried lakes in southwest and central Asia, such as the Aral Sea and Hamouns in east Iran, are major sources of dust storms with an increasing tendency during the last decades due to anthropogenic influence and climate change. This study examines two characteristic dust-storm events originated from these areas on 12–15 July 2016 and 27–28 May 2018. Thermal low-pressure systems over topographic-low areas and the Caspian Sea High, along with pressure gradients and intense surface winds over the dust sources facilitated the dust outbreaks and transport. Three models (DREAM-NMME-MACC, CAMS and WRF-Chem) are synergized to simulate the spatial distribution of AOD and surface dust concentrations during the dust events. The results show that DREAM-NMME-MACC and WRF-Chem exhibit the highest discrepancies (R = 0.15–0.58; RMSE = 83%–125%) in representing the spatial and temporal distribution of dust compared to Terra-MODIS AODs, while CAMS reveals the best performance (R = 0.29–0.77; RSME = 67%–124%). All models significantly underestimate the high MODIS AODs, especially near the source areas, due to different dust schemes, soil conditions, meteorology and dynamic processes for dust emissions that they comprise. Furthermore, notable differences between the models are revealed in simulations of the PM10 concentrations in Zabol, east Iran, as the models fail to reproduce the temporal evolution and high intensity of the dust event. In general, all models represent better the dust storm originated from Sistan (13–14 July 2016) rather than the Aralkum dust storm (27–28 May 2018), indicating an incapability in representing the soil characteristics in a progressively drying terrain.



中文翻译:

来自中亚和西南亚干dried湖的沙尘暴的数值模拟:以咸海和锡斯坦盆地为例

西南亚和中亚的短暂和干燥的湖泊,如伊朗东部的咸海和哈蒙斯,是沙尘暴的主要来源,由于人为影响和气候变化,在过去的几十年中,沙尘暴的趋势呈上升趋势。这项研究调查了2016年7月12日至15日和2018年5月27日至28日来自这些地区的两个典型沙尘暴事件。地形低压区和里海高压上的热低压系统,以及压力梯度和强烈的地面风尘埃源上的灰尘促进了尘埃的爆发和运输。协同使用三个模型(DREAM-NMME-MACC,CAMS和WRF-Chem)来模拟尘埃事件期间AOD和表面尘埃浓度的空间分布。结果表明,DREAM-NMME-MACC和WRF-Chem表现出最高的差异(R = 0.15-0.58;与Terra-MODIS AOD相比,RMSE = 83%–125%)代表粉尘的时空分布,而CAMS表现出最佳性能(R =​​ 0.29–0.77; RSME = 67%–124%)。由于不同的粉尘方案,土壤条件,气象和粉尘排放的动态过程,所有模型都大大低估了MODIS AOD的高位,尤其是在源区附近。此外,模型之间的显着差异体现在PM的仿真中 包括尘埃排放的气象和动态过程。此外,模型之间的显着差异体现在PM的仿真中 包括尘埃排放的气象和动态过程。此外,模型之间的显着差异体现在PM的仿真中伊朗东部Zabol的浓度为10,因为这些模型无法再现尘埃事件的时间演变和高强度。总体而言,所有模型都较好地代表了源自锡斯坦(2016年7月13日至14日)的沙尘暴,而不是Aralkum沙尘暴(2018年5月27日至28日),这表明无法表现出逐渐干燥的地形中的土壤特征。

更新日期:2021-02-03
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