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The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel
Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2019-03-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Esra Alp , Ünal Seven

Exploring dynamics of household final consumption is an important concern for policy-makers. Turkey had witnessed various financial shocks and crises over the last two decades. These turbulent economic periods affected consumption behaviour and therefore, other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we examine the linkage between household final consumption and wealth in Turkey, arising from equity and housing market channels over the period from 1998 Q1 to 2016 Q2. We employ ARDL and FMOLS models in order to analyse long-term relationship and then, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis are used for verifying the effects of shocks. The results suggest that income, credit and housing wealth are positively, interest rate and equity market wealth are negatively associated with consumption. Variance decomposition and impulse response analyses imply that interest rate driven shocks may cause to a decline in asset prices and so aggregate consumption through consumption-wealth channel. These evidences may be beneficial for policymakers to understand the role of interest rate and asset prices on the consumption-wealth channel in Turkey.

中文翻译:

家庭最终消费的动态:财富渠道的作用

探索家庭最终消费的动态是决策者的一个重要关注点。在过去的二十年里,土耳其经历了各种金融冲击和危机。这些动荡的经济时期影响了消费行为,因此也影响了其他宏观经济变量。在本文中,我们研究了 1998 年第一季度至 2016 年第二季度期间由股票和住房市场渠道产生的土耳其家庭最终消费与财富之间的联系。我们使用ARDL和FMOLS模型来分析长期关系,然后使用方差分解和脉冲响应分析来验证冲击的影响。结果表明,收入、信贷和住房财富与消费呈正相关,利率和股票市场财富与消费呈负相关。方差分解和脉冲响应分析表明,利率驱动的冲击可能导致资产价格下降,从而通过消费财富渠道导致总消费下降。这些证据可能有助于政策制定者了解利率和资产价格对土耳其消费财富渠道的作用。
更新日期:2019-03-01
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