Measuring and monitoring inflation uncertainty is an essential ingredient of monetary policy analysis. This study constructs survey measures of inflation uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Using density and point inflation forecasts in the CBRT Survey of Expectations, we derive various uncertainty measures through standard deviation, entropy, and disagreement among forecasters. Our results suggest that survey-based inflation uncertainty measures are broadly consistent with market-implied indicators of inflation risk. Moreover, we find that an increase in observed inflation is associated with higher inflation uncertainty across all empirical specifications.

中文翻译：

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衡量土耳其的通胀不确定性

衡量和监测通胀不确定性是货币政策分析的重要组成部分。本研究构建了土耳其经济通胀不确定性的调查措施。使用 CBRT 预期调查中的密度和点通胀预测，我们通过标准偏差、熵和预测者之间的分歧得出各种不确定性度量。我们的结果表明，基于调查的通胀不确定性指标与市场隐含的通胀风险指标大致一致。此外，我们发现观察到的通货膨胀的增加与所有经验规范中更高的通货膨胀不确定性有关。