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Does the International Tourism Industry Relax Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Case of Countries Most Reliant on Tourism
South East European Journal of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2018-12-01 , DOI: 10.2478/jeb-2018-0014
Zdravko Šergo 1 , Jasmina Gržinić 2
Affiliation  

Abstract Sustainable tourism plays a dominant role in the economic well-being of some of the world’s countries, especially small ones. Tourism earnings account for a significant proportion of their GDP, and they have an overwhelming reliance on tourism as a source of service exports. The general trends in tourism earnings and volatilities in country risk ratings often go hand in hand, especially for small touristic countries in that region. The research presented in this paper provides a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings and highlights the importance of their tourism earnings and tourism export. This study employs the ordered response and Poisson count panel data model for a sample of twenty-two countries most reliant on tourism, including Mediterranean countries. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the tourism determinants of sovereign credit ratings for those countries vary between different rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch’s). The key finding is that an increase in tourism earnings as a proportion of GDP and as the main export share in the total country export impairs the sovereign risk rating and turns out to be robust across the different methodologies.

中文翻译:

国际旅游业是否放宽主权信用等级:以最依赖旅游的国家为例

摘要可持续旅游业在世界一些国家,特别是小国的经济福祉中起着主导作用。旅游业的收入占其国内生产总值的很大一部分,并且他们非常依赖旅游业作为服务出口的来源。旅游业收入的总体趋势和国家风险评级的波动性往往是并驾齐驱的,特别是对于该地区的小型旅游国家而言。本文提出的研究提供了对国际国家风险等级的比较评估,并强调了其旅游收入和旅游出口的重要性。这项研究采用了有序响应和泊松计数面板数据模型,对22个最依赖旅游业的国家(包括地中海国家)进行了抽样。这项研究的目的是调查这些国家的主权信用等级的旅游决定因素在不同的评级机构(标准普尔,穆迪和惠誉)之间是否存在差异。关键发现是,旅游收入在国内生产总值中的占比和主要出口份额的增加,损害了主权风险评级,并且在各种方法中均表现出强劲的潜力。
更新日期:2018-12-01
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