Over half of all students enrolling at a particular university in KwaZulu-Natal fail to complete a degree. This article is wanting to determine to what extent the marks they obtain for English and Mathematics at school impact on their probability of graduation at this university. In addressing this problem, other student specific factors associated with their gender, race and the type of school they have attended need also to be properly accounted for. To provide answers for this study, the performance of 24 392 students enrolling at the university over the period 2004 to 2012 was followed until they graduated or dropped out from their studies. A structural equation model was fitted because it allows one to separate a direct effect from that of an indirect effect. Gender, race and school background were found to be very significant with males, Black Africans and students coming from a less privileged school background having a smaller probability associated with eventually graduating from this university. Males tend to perform better than females in Mathematics, with females performing better males in English. More importantly, however, a single percentage point increase in one’s mark for English increases the probability associated with graduating from this university far more than would be the case if their Mathematics mark were to increase by a single percentage point. In the light of these mediated results, perhaps this university should be directing their efforts more towards improving the English (rather than mathematical) literacy of students entering the university.

中文翻译：

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在学校获得的英语和数学成绩如何影响大学毕业的可能性？

在夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省某所大学就读的所有学生中，超过一半的人没有完成学位。本文希望确定他们在学校获得的英语和数学成绩在多大程度上影响了他们在该大学毕业的可能性。在解决这个问题时，还需要适当考虑与他们的性别，种族和就读学校类型相关的其他学生特定因素。为了为这项研究提供答案，我们跟踪了2004年至2012年间该大学的24 392名学生的表现，直到他们毕业或辍学为止。拟合了结构方程模型，因为它允许将直接效果与间接效果分开。发现性别，种族和学校背景对男性非常重要，黑人非洲人和来自较弱特权学校背景的学生与最终从这所大学毕业相关的可能性较小。在数学方面，男性的表现往往要好于女性，而英语的女性表现要好于男性。但是，更重要的是，将英语成绩提高一个百分点会增加从这所大学毕业的可能性，而如果他们的数学成绩会提高一个百分点则会增加更多的可能性。根据这些中介结果，也许这所大学应该将他们的努力更多地转向提高进入大学的学生的英语（而不是数学）素养上。