Climate influences plant phenological traits, thus playing a key role in defining the geographical range of crops. Foreseeing the impact of climate change on fruit trees is essential to inform policy decisions to guide the adaptation to new climatic conditions. To this end, we propose and use a phenological process-based model to assess the impacts of climate change upon the phenology, the suitability and the distribution of economically important cultivars of peach (Prunus persica), across the entire continental France. The model combines temperature dependent sub-models of dormancy, blooming, fruit survival and ripening, using chilling units, forcing units, frost occurrence and growing degree days, respectively. We find that climate change could have divergent impacts on peach production. On the one hand, blooming would occur earlier, warmer temperatures would decrease spring frost occurrence and fruit ripening would be easily achieved before the start of fall. On the other hand, milder winters would impede the plant buds from breaking endodormancy, with consequent abnormal patterns of fruit development or even blooming failure. This latter impact would dramatically shift the geographic range of sites where peach production will be profitable. This shift would mainly be from the south of France (Languedoc-Roussillon, Rhône-Alpes and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur), to northwestern areas where the winter chilling requirement would still be fulfilled. Our study provides novel insights for understanding and forecasting climate change impacts on peach phenology and it is the first framework that maps the ecological thermal niche of peach at a national level.

气候影响植物的物候特性，因此在定义农作物的地理范围方面起着关键作用。预见气候变化对果树的影响，对于指导决策以适应新的气候条件的决策至关重要。为此，我们提出并使用基于物候过程的模型来评估气候变化对桃（经济李子）物候，适宜性和分布的影响，），遍及整个法国大陆。该模型分别结合了休眠，开花，果实存活和成熟的温度相关子模型，分别使用冷却单位，强迫单位，霜冻发生时间和生长度天数。我们发现气候变化可能对桃子生产产生不同的影响。一方面，开花会更早发生，较高的温度会减少春季霜冻的发生，并且在下降开始之前很容易实现果实的成熟。另一方面，较温和的冬季会阻止植物芽打破内在气味，从而导致果实发育异常，甚至开花失败。后一种影响将极大地改变桃子生产将有利可图的地点的地理范围。这种转变主要来自法国南部（朗格多克-鲁西永，罗纳-阿尔卑斯大区和普罗旺斯-阿尔卑斯-蔚蓝海岸），到西北地区仍然可以满足冬季降温要求。我们的研究为理解和预测气候变化对桃树物候的影响提供了新颖的见解，这是第一个在国家水平上绘制桃树生态热生态位的框架。