Harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie’s western basin are caused in large part by nutrient loss from agricultural production. While use of nutrient management practices is encouraged to reduce agricultural nutrient loss and its consequent environmental impacts, such practices are not universally adopted. This study aims to better understand the factors that influence western Lake Erie basin farmers’ risk perceptions associated with agricultural nutrient loss, and thus further our knowledge of how adoption of nutrient management practices may be increased. We propose a conceptual model to explain the relationships that we hypothesize to influence farmers’ risk perceptions associated with agricultural nutrient loss. Specifically, we consider the roles that farmer conservation identity, farmers’ perceived sufficiency of their nutrient management practices, and land vulnerability to nutrient loss play in influencing risk perceptions. We find that many of the hypothesized relationships are not statistically significant, and that risk perception associated with nutrient loss is primarily driven by farmers’ conservation identities (as opposed to the physical vulnerability of the land). While farmers’ perceived sufficiency of their nutrient management practices plays some role in governing risk perceptions, we do not observe the hypothesized relationship between land vulnerability to nutrient loss and perceived sufficiency of nutrient management practices.

伊利湖西部流域的有害藻华在很大程度上是由于农业生产中养分流失所致。尽管鼓励采用养分管理措施以减少农业养分流失及其对环境的影响，但这种做法并未得到普遍采用。这项研究旨在更好地了解影响伊利湖西部流域农民与农业养分流失相关的风险感知的因素，从而进一步了解如何增加养分管理实践。我们提出了一个概念模型来解释我们假设的关系，这些关系会影响农民与农业养分流失相关的风险感知。具体来说，我们考虑农民保护身份的作用，农民认为自己的养分管理措施足够，土地易受养分流失的影响，影响了风险认识。我们发现，许多假设的关系在统计上都不显着，与营养损失有关的风险感知主要是由农民的保护身份（而不是土地的物理脆弱性）驱动的。尽管农民认为自己的养分管理措施足够，但在控制风险意识方面起着一定作用，但我们没有观察到土地对养分流失的脆弱性与养分管理习惯的认为充分之间的假设关系。与养分流失相关的风险感知主要是由农民的保护身份（而不是土地的物理脆弱性）驱动的。尽管农民认为自己的养分管理措施足够，但在控制风险认识方面发挥了一定作用，但我们没有观察到土地对养分流失的脆弱性与认为养分管理方式足够之间的假设关系。与养分流失相关的风险感知主要是由农民的保护身份（而不是土地的物理脆弱性）驱动的。尽管农民认为自己的养分管理措施足够，但在控制风险意识方面起着一定作用，但我们没有观察到土地对养分流失的脆弱性与养分管理习惯的认为充分之间的假设关系。