In this study, I examine the determinants of a successful futures contract and explore whether an exhaustive checklist of criteria such as the one proposed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) guarantees the success of a commodity contract. Using panel random-effects method on 30 agriculture futures contracts trading in India from 2003–2016, I find that volatility in spot prices is the most crucial determinant, followed by hedging effectiveness and open interest of a futures contract, whereas the size of the underlying spot market, compulsory settlement, and government-imposed ban on futures trading negatively impacts the success of futures contracts. This study has important implications for contract design and new product launches.

在这项研究中，我研究了成功期货合约的决定因素，并探讨了详尽的清单清单，例如印度证券交易委员会（SEBI）提出的清单，是否可以保证商品合约的成功。使用面板随机效应方法对2003年至2016年印度30个农业期货合约交易进行分析，我发现现货价格的波动是最关键的决定因素，其次是对冲有效性和期货合约的未平仓合约，而基础合约的规模现货市场，强制清算以及政府对期货交易的禁令对期货合约的成功产生负面影响。这项研究对合同设计和新产品发布具有重要意义。