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The effect of refugees on native adolescents’ test scores: Quasi-experimental evidence from PISA
Journal of Development Economics ( IF 4.277 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102633
Semih Tumen

Existing evidence suggests that low-skilled refugee influx may increase educational attainment among native adolescents due to reduced opportunities and returns in the lower segment of the labor market. In this paper, I test whether refugee influx can also increase the intensity of human capital accumulation among native adolescents who are enrolled in school. Using the PISA micro data and implementing a quasi-experimental empirical strategy designed to exploit (i) the time variation in regional refugee intensity and (ii) institutional setting in the Turkish public education system, I show that the Math, Science, and Reading scores of Turkish adolescents increased following the Syrian refugee influx. The increase in test scores mostly comes from the lower half of the test score distribution and from native adolescents with lower maternal education. The empirical design embeds a framework where the estimated refugee impact can solely be attributed to the labor market mechanism. In particular, I use the observation that refugee adolescents are enrolled more systematically into the Turkish education system after 2016, which gave me the opportunity to use 2015 and 2018 PISA waves in a way to isolate the effect of the labor market mechanism from the potentially negating force coming from the education experience mechanism. I conclude that the labor market forces that emerged in the aftermath of the refugee crisis have led native adolescents, who would normally perform worse in school, to take their high school education more seriously.



中文翻译:

难民对当地青少年考试成绩的影响:来自PISA的准实验证据

现有证据表明,由于劳动力市场较低部分的机会和回报减少,低技能的难民涌入可能增加土著青少年的教育程度。在本文中,我测试了难民涌入是否还会增加入学的本地青少年中的人力资本积累强度。使用PISA的微观数据并实施准实验经验策略,旨在利用(i)地区难民密度的时间变化和(ii))在土耳其公共教育系统中的机构设置中,我表明,随着叙利亚难民的涌入,土耳其青少年的数学,科学和阅读分数有所提高。考试成绩的提高主要来自于考试成绩分布的下半部分和来自母亲教育程度较低的本地青少年。该经验设计嵌入了一个框架,在该框架中,估计的难民影响可以完全归因于劳动力市场机制。我尤其观察到2016年之后难民青少年更系统地加入了土耳其教育体系,这给了我机会使用2015年和2018年的PISA浪潮,从而将劳动力市场机制的影响与潜在的负面影响隔离开来。力量来自教育经验机制。

更新日期:2021-02-10
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