High temporal variability in environmental conditions, populations, and ecological communities can result in species extinctions and outbreaks of agricultural pests and disease vectors, as well as impact industries dependent on reliable provisioning of ecosystem services. Yet few empirical studies have focused on testing hypotheses about the drivers of ecological temporal variability at large spatial and temporal scales. Using decadal datasets that span aquatic and terrestrial macrosystems and structural equation modeling, we show that local temporal variability and spatial synchrony increase temporal variability for entire macrosystems. These mechanisms are influenced by environmental heterogeneity, habitat‐level species diversity, spatial scale, and the size of the regional species pool. This analysis is among the first to provide a quantitative argument for the value of regional species diversity. Moreover, our conceptual model is generalizable and may help guide management efforts to reduce temporal variability for conservation or service provisioning in other macrosystems.

中文翻译：

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多尺度生物多样性驱动宏观系统的时间变化

环境条件，人口和生态社区的时间高度变化会导致物种灭绝和农业病虫害和疾病媒介的爆发，并影响依赖可靠地提供生态系统服务的行业。然而，很少有实证研究集中在检验关于在大时空尺度上生态时间变异性驱动因素的假设。使用跨越水生和陆地宏观系统的年代际数据集和结构方程模型，我们表明局部时间变异性和空间同步性增加了整个宏观系统的时间变异性。这些机制受环境异质性，栖息地一级物种多样性，空间规模和区域物种库规模的影响。该分析是第一个为区域物种多样性的价值提供定量论证的分析。此外，我们的概念模型具有可概括性，可以帮助指导管理工作以减少其他宏系统中的保护或服务提供的时间变化。