当前位置: X-MOL 学术Land Use Policy › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Spatial and transient modelling of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in a Sahelian landscape under semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso
Land Use Policy ( IF 6.189 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105305
R. Yonaba , M. Koïta , L.A. Mounirou , F. Tazen , P. Queloz , A.C. Biaou , D. Niang , C. Zouré , H. Karambiri , H. Yacouba

Sahelian landscapes have gone through rapid changes over the past decades under high pressure from an ever-growing population, climate hazards and land degradation. Understanding drivers of change and forecasting LULC dynamics in time and space are critical for sustainable land management. This research aimed at analyzing LULC patterns and forecasting future changes in the landscape at the watershed level in semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso. Three LULC categories (natural vegetation, degradation soils, and cultivated areas) were considered. Seasonal vegetation dynamics were assessed through the monitoring of radiometric indices over the years 2015, 2016 and 2017. The post-harvest period (October-November) was found to be optimal for single-date LULC mapping. Furthermore, LULC maps for 1986, 1999, 2009 and 2017 were produced through a supervised classification of Landsat satellite images. For land change modelling and prediction, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network was calibrated between 1999 and 2009 and validated against 2017 reference map, then used to simulate prediction maps for 2030 and 2050, in conjunction with population growth forecasts. Analysis of LULC changes revealed degradation soils were the major contributor to cultivated areas expansion between 1986 and 2017. Land use maps predicted for 2030 and 2050 indicated an expected increase in cultivated areas of 10.4 % and 22.7 % respectively. These results highlight the strength of the human-environment relationship in the watershed and call for careful planning and conservation actions for a sustainable balance between sustainable agricultural production and natural resources conservation.



中文翻译:

布基纳法索北部半干旱气候下萨赫勒景观中土地利用/土地覆被(LULC)动态的时空模型

萨赫勒地区的景观在过去几十年中经历了快速变化,在不断增长的人口,气候灾害和土地退化的压力下。了解变化的驱动因素并预测LULC的时空动态对于可持续土地管理至关重要。这项研究旨在分析LULC模式,并预测布基纳法索北部半干旱气候分水岭地区景观的未来变化。考虑了三个LULC类别(自然植被,退化土壤和耕地)。通过监测2015年,2016年和2017年的辐射指数评估了季节性植被动态。发现收获后时期(10月至11月)对于单次LULC测绘是最佳的。此外,LULC的1986、1999,2009年和2017年是通过对Landsat卫星图像的监督分类而产生的。对于土地变化建模和预测,在1999年至2009年之间对多层感知器(MLP)神经网络进行了校准,并针对2017年参考图进行了验证,然后将其与人口增长预测一起用于模拟2030年和2050年的预测图。对LULC变化的分析表明,退化土壤是1986年至2017年耕地面积扩大的主要推动力。预测的2030年和2050年土地利用图显示,耕地面积的预期增长分别为10.4%和22.7%。

更新日期:2021-02-01
down
wechat
bug