Socio-economic and technological drivers will strongly shape the future of the global timber market, forest area and climate change mitigation potential, however impacts could vary widely across several plausible futures. This paper illustrates how Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) can be applied to forest sector modelling using a method that translates qualitative narratives into quantitative parameters and then applying them to a dynamic global timber model framework. Results indicate wide variations in estimates for key forest sector outputs across the five SSPs with largest impacts on wood prices and forest area. The price estimates have a strong correlation with the other results, as higher timber prices incentivize land to remain in forests, more intensive management, and greater roundwood harvests. Competing influences such as population growth, economic development, land use policy, and technological change could result in wide changes in forest area, ranging from −970 Mha to +840 Mha between now and 2105. Despite large variations across the SSPs, global forests are likely to remain a net carbon sink, with the average annual global forest carbon sequestration ranging from 1.8 GtCO2e/yr to 6.9 GtCO2e/yr. The results of our study, including sensitivity analysis, support developing policies directed towards expanding forest cover or curbing deforestation in an effort to increase forest carbon by focusing on effective ways to enhance technological change, promote sustainable economic development, improve land use protection, and shift consumer preferences towards longer-lasting wood products, which will all raise the relative value of forests across the globe.

社会经济和技术驱动因素将强烈影响全球木材市场，森林面积和减缓气候变化潜力的未来，但是在几个可能的未来中，影响可能差异很大。本文说明了如何使用一种将定性叙述转化为定量参数，然后将其应用于动态全球木材模型框架的方法，将共享社会经济途径（SSP）应用于森林部门建模。结果表明，五个SSP的主要林业部门产出估算值差异很大，对木材价格和森林面积的影响最大。价格估计与其他结果有很强的相关性，因为更高的木材价格会激励土地留在森林中，进行更密集的管理，以及增加原木的收成。人口增长，经济发展，土地使用政策和技术变化等竞争性影响可能会导致森林面积的广泛变化，从现在到2105年，森林面积从−970 Mha到+840 Mha不等。尽管各个SSP的差异很大，但全球森林可能仍会保持净碳汇，全球每年平均森林固碳量为1.8 GtCO2e /年至6.9 GtCO2e /年。我们的研究结果（包括敏感性分析）支持旨在扩大森林覆盖率或遏制森林砍伐的发展政策，旨在通过致力于增强技术变革，促进可持续经济发展，改善土地使用保护和转移的有效途径来增加森林碳含量。消费者对持久木材产品的偏好，