Terrestrial palaeo-temperature data are of great value in improving our understanding of past climate and they provide a basis for evaluating climate simulations. Such data are, however, poorly constrained for long time-scales. In addition to the scarcity of high-quality continuous time-series, finding proxies with a clear response to past temperature changes and developing appropriate reconstruction methods are major challenges. We present a new and robust method – Locally-weighted Weighted-average partial least squares (LW-WAPLS) to reconstruct quantitative temperature changes based on a high-resolution 1.74-Ma pollen record from the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where the vegetation today is mainly controlled by temperature. The reconstructed mean annual (MAT) and warmest month (MTWM) temperatures reveal a general cooling trend with two major shifts at ~1.54 and 0.62 Ma BP, and regular glacial-interglacial variability ranging from ~ − 4 to 2 °C and from 8 to 16 °C, respectively. They indicate ~4–5 °C (MAT) and ~ 5–6 °C (MTWM) magnitudes of glacial-interglacial temperatures. Both statistical and ecological evaluations validate the reliability of the reconstructions. The reconstructions provide important insights into the spatial aspects of long-term terrestrial temperature change. LW-WAPLS shows advantages over both the traditional modern analogue technique and non-linear transfer-function methodologies such as WAPLS for reconstructing the broad-scale climate changes for the Zoige Basin, by combining the strength of both methods. The LW-WAPLS approach potentially provides a robust tool to develop pollen-based climate reconstructions over long time-scales.

陆地古温度数据在增进我们对过去气候的理解方面具有重要价值，它们为评估气候模拟提供了基础。但是，这样的数据在很长的时间范围内约束较弱。除了缺乏高质量的连续时间序列外，寻找对过去温度变化有明确反应的代理并开发适当的重建方法也是主要挑战。我们提出了一种新的强大方法-局部加权加权平均偏最小二乘（LW-WAPLS），以青藏高原东部若尔盖盆地的高分辨率1.74-Ma花粉记录为基础，重建定量温度变化。今天的植被主要受温度控制。重建的年平均（MAT）和最暖月（MTWM）温度显示出总体降温趋势，在〜1.54和0.62 Ma BP处有两个主要变化，且冰晶间变化在〜−4至2°C和从8至8°C的范围内分别为16°C。它们表明冰间温度约为4-5°C（MAT）和5-6°C（MTWM）。统计和生态评估都验证了重建的可靠性。重建提供了关于长期陆地温度变化的空间方面的重要见解。LW-WAPLS与传统的现代模拟技术和非线性传递函数方法（例如WAPLS）相比，在结合两个方法的优势来重构Zoige盆地的大规模气候变化方面显示出优势。