This article describes a probabilistic site‐response analysis for the city of Oslo, Norway. We first perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for hard rock. Then, we conduct site‐response analyses using Monte Carlo simulations to capture uncertainty in the site profile. We include four base‐case soil profiles to incorporate epistemic uncertainty, and we vary the shear‐wave velocity profile and shear‐modulus reduction and damping curves to account for aleatory variability. We base the soil profiles on over 7000 in situ tests, and the shear‐wave velocity profile median, standard deviation, and interlayer correlation on over 559 cone penetration tests. Next, we perform regression analyses to estimate medians and standard deviations of site‐specific amplification factors (AFs). Finally, we modify the ground‐motion models for rock with the AFs and recompute the PSHA for the soil surface. The analyses show that (1) shallower soil profiles have larger uniform hazard spectra (UHS) values at short periods and smaller UHS values at long periods; (2) epistemic uncertainty of the base‐case soil shear‐wave velocity profile leads to alternative UHS values with a difference of a factor of 2 at short periods; (3) there is only a small difference in the mean magnitudes and distances controlling the hazard for the PSHA conducted for rock compared to soil; (4) response spectra calculated from site‐response analyses with no aleatory variability of the soil properties predict significantly smaller spectral acceleration values at periods shorter than the natural site period; (5) using site amplification standard deviations based on ground‐motion recordings, instead of site‐response analyses, results in a 10%–20% reduction in the soil surface UHS at short periods and a 5%–10% increase at long periods; and (6) the Eurocode 8 AFs are, in general, conservative for Oslo.

中文翻译：

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挪威奥斯陆的PSHA兼容概率地震现场响应分析

本文介绍了挪威奥斯陆市的概率站点响应分析。我们首先对硬岩进行概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）。然后，我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟进行现场响应分析，以捕获现场概况中的不确定性。我们包括四种基本情况下的土壤剖面，以纳入认识上的不确定性，并且我们改变了剪切波速度剖面，剪切模量减少和阻尼曲线，以解决偶然的变化。我们基于7000多个原位测试来确定土壤剖面，并基于559多个锥入度测试来确定横波速度剖面的中值，标准偏差和层间相关性。接下来，我们进行回归分析以估计位点特异性扩增因子（AFs）的中位数和标准偏差。最后，我们使用AF修改了岩石的地面运动模型，并重新计算了土壤表面的PSHA。分析表明：（1）较浅的土壤剖面在短期内具有较大的统一危险谱（UHS）值，而在长期内具有较小的UHS值；（2）基本情况下土壤剪切波速度分布的认识不确定性导致替代的UHS值在短期内相差2倍；（3）与土壤相比，控制岩石PSHA危害的平均幅度和距离只有很小的差异；（4）通过场地响应分析计算出的响应光谱，并没有土壤特性的偶然变化，预测在比自然场地周期短的时期内光谱加速度值明显较小; （5）使用基于地面运动记录的场地放大标准差而不是场地响应分析，可在短时间内减少10％–20％的土壤表面UHS，在长时期内减少5％–10％ ; （6）对于奥斯陆而言，Eurocode 8 AF通常较为保守。