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More Fault Connectivity Is Needed in Seismic Hazard Analysis
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ( IF 3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 , DOI: 10.1785/0120200119
Morgan T. Page 1
Affiliation  

Did the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) go overboard with multifault ruptures? Schwartz (2018) argues that there are too many long ruptures in the model. Here, I address his concern and show that the UCERF3 rupture‐length distribution matches empirical data. I also present evidence that, if anything, the UCERF3 model could be improved by adding more connectivity to the fault system. Adding more connectivity would improve model misfits with data, particularly with paleoseismic data on the southern San Andreas fault; make the model less characteristic on the faults; potentially improve aftershock forecasts; and reduce model sensitivity to inadequacies and unknowns in the modeled fault system.

中文翻译:

地震危险性分析需要更多的故障连通性

第三次加利福尼亚统一地震破裂预报(UCERF3)是否因多故障破裂而落空了?Schwartz(2018)认为模型中有太多的长时间破裂。在这里,我解决了他的担忧,并表明UCERF3的断裂长度分布与经验数据相匹配。我还提供证据表明,如果有的话,可以通过增加与故障系统的更多连接来改善UCERF3模型。增加更多的连通性将改善模型与数据的失配,尤其是与南部圣安德烈亚斯断层的古地震数据;使模型的故障特征减少;可能会改善余震预报;并降低模型对建模故障系统中不足和未知数的敏感性。
更新日期:2021-01-31
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