ABSTRACT

To consolidate a predominant party system, an incumbent party will attempt to anchor voting behavior to social cleavages, a strategy called cleavage enclosure. However, does this strategy actually work? In Turkey, the incumbent AKP government has focused its campaigning on conservatives and nationalists. The analysis of the 2018 post-election survey reveals that the cleavage enclosure worked for conservatives but not for nationalists. Of the incumbent supporters in the previous election, conservatives replicated their support, whereas nationalists were less likely to support the incumbent than other identity holders. Nationalists tend to punish but not reward the incumbent party for its economic performance.

摘要

为了巩固主导政党制度，现任政党将尝试将投票行为锚定在社会分裂上，这种策略称为分裂包围。然而，这个策略真的有效吗？在土耳其，现任正发党政府将其竞选活动的重点放在保守派和民族主义者身上。对 2018 年大选后调查的分析表明，乳沟围场对保守派有效，但对民族主义者无效。在上次选举的现任支持者中，保守派复制了他们的支持，而民族主义者比其他身份持有者更不可能支持现任支持者。民族主义者倾向于惩罚而不是奖励现任政党的经济表现。