This study examines how market timing can affect host market reaction to cross-border seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), an event generally viewed unfavorably by investors. We assume that firms engage in market timing in response to valuation uncertainty (VU), home market uncertainty (HMU) and/or host market uncertainty (HSU), and that raising capital abroad faces higher scrutiny costs and familiarity bias from host market investors. We conjecture that timing strategies provide signals that vary in strength to host market investors and that dual-timing strategies may strengthen an existing signal. Our hypotheses are tested on a sample of 190 cross-border SEOs that were issued on the U.S. stock market between 1990 and 2017 by firms from 29 countries. Using event study methodology, we find that market timing based on VU is negatively related to host market valuation and that a dual-timing strategy with HMU or HSU generally produces a stronger signal. Our results have practical relevance for stock markets that suffer from high uncertainty; we estimate that a high VU firm with a $1 billion valuation suffers a drop of $31.3 million in market valuation during a high host market uncertainty (high HSU) compared with low host market uncertainty (low HSU).

这项研究研究了市场时机如何影响东道国市场对跨境经验丰富的股票发行（SEO）的反应，这一事件通常受到投资者的不利评价。我们假设公司参与市场时机以应对估值不确定性（VU），本地市场不确定性（HMU）和/或东道国市场不确定性（HSU），并且假设在国外筹集资金面临更高的审查成本和东道国市场投资者的熟悉度偏差。我们推测，定时策略提供的信号强度会有所不同，以吸引市场投资者，而双定时策略可能会增强现有的信号。我们的假设以1990年至2017年间由29个国家/地区的公司在美国股票市场上发行的190个跨境SEO样本为基础进行了检验。使用事件研究方法，我们发现，基于VU的市场时机与东道国市场估值负相关，并且采用HMU或HSU的双重时机策略通常会产生更强的信号。我们的结果对遭受高度不确定性的股票市场具有实际意义。我们估计，在东道国市场不确定性较高（HSU较高）的情况下，与东道国市场不确定性较低（HSU较低）相比，估值为10亿美元的VU高的公司的市值下降了3130万美元。