Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

区域增长模型无法解释的变化很大。尽管我们应继续致力于改善这些模型，但每个地区的条件和人员代理的独特结合也将始终导致特定地区的增长轨迹。从理论上讲，我们应该因此而预期与增长预测的系统偏差。我们提出一种方法来探索这些无法解释的偏差，并检测在某些时期内表现出意想不到的好或坏的区域。我们使用1990年至2016年的瑞典数据说明了该方法。我们发现无法解释的周期性区域增长偏差的系统模式胜过了一般结构性因素的影响。