In order to improve the accuracy of the surface dynamic prediction model in mining areas with thick unconsolidated layers and improve Knothe time function, the influence coefficient was firstly changed into the coefficient in exponential form, and the influence coefficient of unconsolidated layer was added. Then, a subsidence basin prediction model for mining under thick unconsolidated layers was established. Next, the model was combined with the improved Knothe function, thus constructing a new mining subsidence prediction model. The new subsidence prediction model was applied in 1414 (1) working face in Huainan mining area. The results showed that the integrated model could better reflect the subsidence process, and the prediction values and the measured values agreed well.

为了提高未固结层较厚的采空区地表动力学预测模型的精度，提高Knothe时间函数，首先将影响系数改为指数形式的系数，并增加了未固结层的影响系数。然后，建立了厚不固结层下开采的沉陷盆地预测模型。接下来，该模型与改进的Knothe函数相结合，从而构建了一个新的开采沉陷预测模型。新的沉降预测模型已在淮南矿区的1414（1）工作面中应用。结果表明，该综合模型能较好地反映沉降过程，预测值与实测值吻合良好。