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The Assessment of Global Surface Temperature Change from 1850s: The C-LSAT2.0 Ensemble and the CMST-Interim Datasets
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s00376-021-1012-3
Wenbin Sun , Qingxiang Li , Boyin Huang , Jiayi Cheng , Zhaoyang Song , Haiyan Li , Wenjie Dong , Panmao Zhai , Phil Jones

Based on C-LSAT2.0, using high- and low-frequency components reconstruction methods, combined with observation constraint masking, a reconstructed C-LSAT2.0 with 756 ensemble members from the 1850s to 2018 has been developed. These ensemble versions have been merged with the ERSSTv5 ensemble dataset, and an upgraded version of the CMST-Interim dataset with 5° × 5° resolution has been developed. The CMST-Interim dataset has significantly improved the coverage rate of global surface temperature data. After reconstruction, the data coverage before 1950 increased from 78%–81% of the original CMST to 81%–89%. The total coverage after 1955 reached about 93%, including more than 98% in the Northern Hemisphere and 81%–89% in the Southern Hemisphere. Through the reconstruction ensemble experiments with different parameters, a good basis is provided for more systematic uncertainty assessment of C-LSAT2.0 and CMST-Interim. In comparison with the original CMST, the global mean surface temperatures are estimated to be cooler in the second half of 19th century and warmer during the 21st century, which shows that the global warming trend is further amplified. The global warming trends are updated from 0.085 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.128 ± 0.006°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.089 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.137 ± 0.007°C (10 yr)−1, respectively, since the start and the second half of 20th century.



中文翻译:

1850年代以来全球表面温度变化的评估:C-LSAT2.0组合和CMST临时数据集

基于C-LSAT2.0,使用高频和低频分量重构方法,结合观测约束遮罩,开发了从1850到2018年具有756个合奏成员的重构C-LSAT2.0。这些集成版本已与ERSSTv5集成数据集合并,并且已开发了分辨率为5°×5°的CMST-Interim数据集的升级版本。CMST-Interim数据集显着提高了全球表面温度数据的覆盖率。重建后,1950年之前的数据覆盖率从原始CMST的78%–81%增加到了81%–89%。1955年之后的总覆盖率达到约93%,其中北半球超过98%,南半球超过81%-89%。通过不同参数的重建合奏实验,为对C-LSAT2.0和CMST-Interim进行更系统的不确定性评估提供了良好的基础。与最初的CMST相比,估计全球平均表面温度在19世纪下半叶更凉爽,而在21世纪则更暖和,这表明全球变暖趋势进一步加剧。全球变暖趋势已从0.085±0.004°C(10年)更新自20日开始和下半年以来分别为-1和0.128±0.006°C(10年)-1至0.089±0.004°C(10年)-1和0.137±0.007°C(10年)-1世纪。

更新日期:2021-01-28
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