The risk of surface water flooding (SWF) in England is already high and its frequency and severity is projected to increase in the future. SWF generally occurs due to intense, highly localised rainfall, which is challenging to forecast with sufficient accuracy to take proactive action ahead of flood events. Being able to manage the risk effectively lies in improved rainfall and flood forecast products, better communication of uncertainty and building the capacity of local responders. This study utilises state‐of‐the‐art high‐resolution ensemble rainfall forecasts and hydraulic modelling tools alongside a novel post‐processing method to develop and trial new SWF forecast products within an incident workshop attended by forecast producers and regional forecast users. Twenty‐two of 24 workshop participants reported that the new information would be useful to their organisation but more product development and training in its interpretation is required. Specific recommendations to improve SWF forecast provision include increased support for local government through a single government organisation responsible for SWF, making more use of existing static SWF mapping in a real‐time context and employing the process of user‐based consultation, as outlined in this study, to guide the future development of future SWF forecast information and processes.

中文翻译：

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增强的地表水洪水预报：用户主导的开发和测试

在英格兰，地表水淹（SWF）的风险已经很高，并且其频率和严重性预计在未来会增加。SWF通常是由于强烈的局部降雨造成的，这对于以足够的准确度进行预测以在洪水事件发生之前采取主动行动具有挑战性。有效地管理风险的关键在于改进的降雨和洪水预报产品，更好的不确定性沟通以及当地响应者的能力建设。这项研究利用最新的高分辨率集合降雨预报和水力建模工具，以及新颖的后处理方法，在由预报生产者和区域预报用户参加的事件研讨会上开发和试用新的SWF预报产品。24个研讨会参与者中的22个报告说，新信息将对他们的组织有用，但需要更多产品开发和解释方面的培训。改善SWF预测提供的具体建议包括：通过一个负责SWF的单一政府组织增加对地方政府的支持，在实时环境中更多地利用现有的静态SWF映射，并采用基于用户的咨询过程，如本概述中所述。研究，以指导未来SWF预测信息和流程的未来发展。