A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States.

中文翻译：

---

国际政治在农产品贸易中的作用：来自美加双边关系的证据

加拿大和美国之间运作良好的贸易关系对加拿大农业食品行业的经济活力至关重要。但是，农产品贸易比其他部门更容易受到政治干预。特朗普总统任职期间使加美关系紧张，他的贸易政策行动大大增加了贸易限制和贸易政策的不确定性，并破坏了基于规则的全球贸易体系。我们检查了两国之间的农产品贸易模式，发现双边农产品贸易的上升轨迹于2013年结束。尽管这种扁平化早于特朗普政府，但我们表明特朗普从2017年开始增加了贸易政策的不确定性，并且有可能影响了贸易的进一步扩大。我们研究了在拜登担任总统期间可能发生的变化，并认为新政府有可能恢复与盟国的牢固关系，并致力于重建重要的国际机构，例如世界贸易组织（WTO）。尽管贸易保护主义势力将继续影响双边农产品贸易，但我们希望拜登政府与加拿大总理之间的政治联系更加紧密。通过减少贸易不确定性，这将对加拿大农业食品业产生积极影响，从而增加加拿大与美国之间的农业食品贸易。我们希望拜登政府与加拿大总理之间的政治联系更加紧密。通过减少贸易不确定性，这将对加拿大农业食品业产生积极影响，从而增加加拿大与美国之间的农业食品贸易。我们希望拜登政府与加拿大总理之间的政治联系更加紧密。通过减少贸易不确定性，这将对加拿大农业食品业产生积极影响，从而增加加拿大与美国之间的农业食品贸易。