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A decision support tool for assessing cumulative effects on an Arctic migratory tundra caribou population
Ecology and Society ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-26 , DOI: 10.5751/es-12105-260104
Don Russell , Anne Gunn , Robert White

As large migratory caribou herds decline globally and regional climate trends point to a warmer future, there is a need and a legislative requirement to ensure impacts of industrial development are fully assessed, particularly with respect to cumulative effects. In this paper we use a current proposal, the potential leasing of the 1002 lands on the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for hydrocarbon development, to project the potential cumulative effects on the international Porcupine Caribou Herd. Using the caribou cumulative effects model, an existing decision support tool, we evaluate six alternative development scenarios for the 1002 lands, ranging from no leasing to full leasing with standard mitigation conditions. Compared to the no leasing option, at the current population size (218,000 caribou), our analysis projected that the likelihood of a herd decline over a 10-year period would increase from 3% to 19% depending on the leasing scenarios analyzed. This compares to an increased probability of decline from 11% to 26% if the starting population was 100,000, indicative of population estimates in the early 1970s. Our approach accomplishes one of the main steps in a comprehensive cumulative effects assessment, namely the quantification of past, present, and foreseeable future projects on a valued ecosystem component, the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We suggest the testing of underlining assumptions and refinements of the model required to more fully estimate the impacts of development. The use of transparent, quantitative decision support tools in assessing industrial development impacts on Arctic wildlife becomes more critical as climatic changes to Arctic landscapes accelerate.

中文翻译:

一种决策支持工具,用于评估对北极迁徙冻原驯鹿种群的累积影响

随着全球大型迁徙北美驯鹿种群的减少以及区域气候趋势表明未来将更加温暖,有必要并且有一项立法要求,以确保充分评估工业发展的影响,特别是在累积影响方面。在本文中,我们使用当前的提案,即在北极国家野生动物保护区的阿拉斯加北极沿海平原上的1002片土地的潜在租赁来开发碳氢化合物,以预测对国际豪猪驯鹿群的潜在累积影响。使用北美驯鹿累积效应模型(一种现有的决策支持工具),我们评估了1002片土地的六个替代发展方案,从无租赁到具有标准缓解条件的完全租赁。与无租赁方式相比,以目前的人口规模(218,000北美驯鹿)而言,我们的分析预测,根据所分析的租赁方案,在10年内畜群下降的可能性将从3%增加到19%。如果起始人口为100,000,则下降的可能性从11%增加到26%,这表明1970年代初期的人口估计。我们的方法完成了全面累积影响评估的主要步骤之一,即量化了有价值的生态系统组成部分豪猪驯鹿群的过去,现在和可预见的未来项目。我们建议测试强调假设并对该模型进行完善,以更全面地评估开发的影响。使用透明
更新日期:2021-01-27
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