Bio-based innovations do not evolve independently from each other, but are interrelated and may enjoy synergies, but also compete for resources (i.e. biomass, skills). Therefore, we explore possible transition pathways that distinct bio-based niches could follow during a joint transformation process. We apply the Multi-Level-Perspective’s transition pathways to the four distinct niches of (i) bioplastics, (ii) biolubricants and of biofuels for (iii) road and (iv) aviation. A subsequent scenario exercise that combines possible transitions paths of these niches enables us to explore the special relation between the individual niches and to detect possible synergies or conflicts. The scenarios show that diverse developments between bio-based niches in terms of scale and type of transition in the future are highly plausible. Finally, based on the results we derive conclusions about appropriate governance arrangements for the bioeconomy.

基于生物的创新并不是相互独立发展的，而是相互关联的，可能会产生协同效应，而且还会争夺资源（即生物量，技能）。因此，我们探讨了在联合转化过程中不同生物基生态位可能遵循的可能过渡途径。我们将多层次视角的过渡途径应用于（i）生物塑料，（ii）生物润滑剂和生物燃料的四个不同细分市场，以用于（iii）道路和（iv）航空。随后的情景练习结​​合了这些生态位的可能过渡路径，使我们能够探索各个生态位之间的特殊关系，并检测可能的协同作用或冲突。这些场景表明，未来生物基生态系统在规模和过渡类型方面的多样化发展是非常合理的。最后，