This contribution examines the passenger forecasting performance of the SARIMA method applied to cruise activities in the main Spanish ports. In this port system, the cruise activity market is characterized by different seasonal patterns (i.e., once- or twice-yearly peaks, which means unimodal or bimodal behavior) due to repositioning strategy. The outcome of standard indicators for accuracy testing reveals inconsistent prediction performances among ports. These inconsistencies are analyzed using an index of bimodality and seasonal variability. The forecasted values for a high-level of bimodality and seasonal variability show worse prediction performances than unimodal patterns and low seasonal variability. Ports with less passenger activity entail larger predictions errors. Exponential and linear models were adjusted between the error metrics and the mentioned indexes.

中文翻译：

---

邮轮乘客的预测表现：西班牙港口案例

这篇文章检查了应用于西班牙主要港口巡航活动的 SARIMA 方法的乘客预测性能。在这个港口系统中，由于重新定位策略，邮轮活动市场具有不同的季节性模式（即每年一次或两次高峰，这意味着单峰或双峰行为）。精度测试标准指标的结果显示端口之间的预测性能不一致。使用双峰性和季节性变化的指数分析这些不一致。高水平双峰和季节性变化的预测值显示出比单峰模式和低季节性变化更差的预测性能。旅客活动较少的港口会带来较大的预测误差。