Low-density residential development in rural areas is an important land use trend in many parts of the world, and has disproportionate ecological impacts due to its large footprint relative to population. It is widely suggested that this type of land use change is driven in part by natural amenities, raising the concern that locations of high natural value are most rapid to develop. We examine the contribution of natural amenities to the probability of low-density development controlling for more traditional drivers of land use change. We do so considering the influence of natural amenities at two scales, individual plots, and the larger communities in the immediate vicinity. We use a unique primary dataset based on photo interpretation of high resolution imagery to capture residential development at the scale of a single house between 1990 and 2010. We combine these data with spatially-referenced census and other secondary data to estimate a multilevel regression model of the probability of residential land conversion. Our results demonstrate that communities near National Parks, other public lands and ski resorts experienced significantly higher rates of residential land conversion than those further from these amenities. Within communities, undeveloped plots that were 10 min closer than average to public land had a 67 % higher probability of conversion to residential use holding other characteristics constant, plots that were 75 min closer than average to a large lake had a 139 % higher probability of conversion, and plots with 1 standard deviation more forest/non-forest variation had a 44 % higher probability of conversion. Our findings regarding community and plot level influences of natural amenities on rural development are unique in the land use literature, and are important for identifying which communities and individual parcels have the highest probability of development. This can inform policy makers’ and conservationists’ efforts to protect places facing the highest threats, and help both regional and local land-use planners manage tradeoffs between environmental protection and economic growth.

农村地区的低密度住宅开发是世界许多地区重要的土地使用趋势，并且由于其相对于人口的足迹较大，其生态影响不成比例。普遍认为，这种土地利用类型的变化部分是由自然条件驱动的，这引起了人们对自然价值高的地区发展最快的担忧。我们研究了自然便利设施对控制更多传统土地利用变化的低密度发展可能性的贡献。我们这样做的目的是考虑自然环境在两个尺度上的影响，即个人土地和附近较大的社区。我们使用基于高分辨率图像的照片判读的独特主要数据集来捕获1990年至2010年间单个房屋规模的住宅开发。我们将这些数据与空间参考人口普查和其他辅助数据结合起来，以估算住宅用地转换的可能性。我们的结果表明，与远离这些便利设施的社区相比，国家公园，其他公共土地和滑雪胜地附近的社区的居住用地转化率明显更高。在社区内，与其他土地相比，距公共土地平均距离较近10分钟的未开发土地具有较高的67％转换为住宅用途的可能性，而与大湖泊相比距离平均距离较近75分钟的土地具有较高的139％发生概率。转换，而具有1个标准差的林地/非林地变化多的地块，其转换几率提高了44％。我们关于自然设施对农村发展的社区和地块级影响的发现在土地使用文献中是独一无二的，对于确定哪些社区和个人地块具有最高发展可能性非常重要。这可以为政策制定者和保护主义者在保护面临最高威胁的地方方面所做的努力提供信息，并帮助区域和地方土地使用规划者管理环境保护与经济增长之间的权衡取舍。对于确定哪些社区和个人地块具有最高发展可能性非常重要。这可以为政策制定者和保护主义者在保护面临最高威胁的地方方面所做的努力提供信息，并帮助区域和地方土地使用规划者管理环境保护与经济增长之间的权衡取舍。对于确定哪些社区和个人地块具有最高发展可能性非常重要。这可以为政策制定者和保护主义者在保护面临最高威胁的地方方面所做的努力提供信息，并帮助区域和地方土地使用规划者管理环境保护与经济增长之间的权衡取舍。