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Democracy and deforestation: The role of spillover effects
Forest Policy and Economics ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102398
Michael Cary , Festus Victor Bekun

This paper is a replication and extension of Buitenzorgy and Mol (2011). We recreate the data and analyses from that paper on the impact of democracy on deforestation from 1990 through 2000 with great precision before extending the data set and analyses to include the period from 2000 through 2010. We find that the original results of Buitenzorgy and Mol (2011) were spurious and inconsistent in the replication once heteroskedasticity robust standard errors were employed. When combining the two time periods and running analyses on panel data and differenced data for robust outcomes and better policy inferences, we find different results for the effect of democracy on deforestation, indicating that model specification is critical to studying this relationship. The more econometrically sound method, the differenced models, reject the Environmental Kuznet's Curve (EKC) hypothesis for democracy and deforestation, instead indicating that democracy decreased deforestation rates. When adding democracy spillover effects to the model, i.e., the impact on deforestation rates due to changes in democracy levels in neighboring countries, we still find that democracy leads to decreased rates of deforestation. We also find that having more democratic neighbors leads to further decreases in democracy. These outcomes have far-reaching implications for the blocs examined, which are highlighted in this study.



中文翻译:

民主与毁林:溢出效应的作用

本文是Buitenzorgy和Mol(2011)的复制和扩展。在扩展数据集和分析以涵盖2000年至2010年期间之前,我们以极高的精度重新创建了该论文的数据和分析,分析了1990年至2000年民主对毁林的影响。我们发现Buitenzorgy和Mol(一旦采用异方差稳健的标准错误,则复制中的伪造和不一致(2011年)。当将这两个时间段结合起来并在面板数据和差异数据上进行分析以获得可靠的结果和更好的政策推论时,我们发现民主对于毁林的影响存在不同的结果,这表明模型规范对于研究这种关系至关重要。计量经济学上更合理的方法,不同的模型,否决民主和森林砍伐的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设,而是表明民主降低了森林砍伐率。当在模型中添加民主溢出效应时,即由于邻国民主水平的变化而对森林砍伐率的影响,我们仍然发现,民主会导致森林砍伐率下降。我们还发现,拥有更多民主邻国会导致民主进一步减少。这些结果对所考察的集团具有深远的影响,本研究强调了这一点。由于邻国民主水平的变化对森林砍伐率的影响,我们仍然发现,民主导致森林砍伐率下降。我们还发现,拥有更多民主邻国会导致民主进一步减少。这些结果对所考察的集团具有深远的影响,本研究强调了这一点。由于邻国民主水平的变化对森林砍伐率的影响,我们仍然发现,民主导致森林砍伐率下降。我们还发现,拥有更多民主邻国会导致民主进一步减少。这些结果对所考察的集团具有深远的影响,本研究强调了这一点。

更新日期:2021-01-28
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