North–south asymmetry in solar activity and Solar Cycle prediction, V: prediction for the north–south asymmetry in the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25,Astrophysics and Space Science

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North–south asymmetry in solar activity and Solar Cycle prediction, V: prediction for the north–south asymmetry in the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
Astrophysics and Space Science ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s10509-021-03922-w
J. Javaraiah

There exists a small but statistically significant north–south asymmetry in most of the solar activity indices and it has important implications on the solar dynamo mechanism. Here we analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874 – 1976, Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977 – 2017, and the revised Version-2 of international sunspot number (ISSN) during the period 1874 – 2017. We determined the amplitudes (the largest 13-month smoothed monthly ISSN) of Solar Cycles 12 – 24 and the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun’s whole-sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of the maxima of Solar Cycles 12 – 24. Using all these we obtained the relations similar to that found in our earlier analyzes–i.e. the existence of a high correlation between the sum of the areas of sunspot groups in the southern-hemisphere near-equatorial band during a small (7–9 months) interval just after a maximum epoch of a solar cycle and the amplitude of next solar cycle–separately for the Sun’s whole-sphere and northernand southern-hemispheres. By using these relations we predict ≈701 msh (millionth of solar hemisphere), ≈429 msh, and ≈366 msh for the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA, respectively, at the maximum epoch of Solar Cycle 25. We predict 86 ± 18 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. The 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area highly correlate with that of ISSN. Using this relation and the predicted values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA we obtain 68± 11 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, which is slightly lower than the aforementioned

更新日期：2021-01-01

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