SummaryFuture global environmental change will have a significant impact on biodiversity through the intersecting forces of climate change, urbanization, human population growth, overexploitation, and pollution. This presents a fundamental challenge to conservation approaches, which seek to conserve past or current assemblages of species or ecosystems in situ. This review canvases diverse approaches to biodiversity futures, including social science scholarship on the Anthropocene and futures thinking alongside models and scenarios from the biophysical science community. It argues that charting biodiversity futures requires processes that must include broad sections of academia and the conservation community to ask what desirable futures look like, and for whom. These efforts confront political and philosophical questions about levels of acceptable loss, and how trade-offs can be made in ways that address the injustices in the distribution of costs and benefits across and within human and non-human life forms. As such, this review proposes that charting biodiversity futures is inherently normative and political. Drawing on diverse scholarship united under a banner of ‘futures thinking’ this review presents an array of methods, approaches and concepts that provide a foundation from which to consider research and decision-making that enables action in the context of contested and uncertain biodiversity futures.

中文翻译：

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参与生物多样性未来的科学和政治：文献综述

摘要未来的全球环境变化将通过气候变化、城市化、人口增长、过度开发和污染的交叉力量对生物多样性产生重大影响。这对保护方法提出了根本性挑战，保护方法旨在就地保护过去或当前的物种或生态系统组合。这篇评论探讨了生物多样性未来的多种方法，包括关于人类世的社会科学学术研究和未来思考以及来自生物物理科学界的模型和情景。它认为，绘制生物多样性未来需要的过程必须包括学术界和保护界的广泛部门，以询问理想的未来是什么样的，以及对谁而言。这些努力面临有关可接受损失水平的政治和哲学问题，以及如何以解决人类和非人类生命形式之间和内部成本和收益分配不公正的方式进行权衡。因此，本次审查提出，绘制生物多样性未来图表本质上是规范性和政治性的。在“未来思维”的旗帜下联合各种学术，本综述提出了一系列方法、方法和概念，这些方法、方法和概念为考虑研究和决策提供了基础，从而能够在有争议和不确定的生物多样性未来的背景下采取行动。本次审查提出，绘制生物多样性未来图表本质上是规范性和政治性的。在“未来思维”的旗帜下联合各种学术，本综述提出了一系列方法、方法和概念，这些方法、方法和概念为考虑研究和决策提供了基础，从而能够在有争议和不确定的生物多样性未来的背景下采取行动。本次审查提出，绘制生物多样性未来图表本质上是规范性和政治性的。在“未来思维”的旗帜下联合各种学术，本综述提出了一系列方法、方法和概念，这些方法、方法和概念为考虑研究和决策提供了基础，从而能够在有争议和不确定的生物多样性未来的背景下采取行动。