This paper investigates the impact of CEO overconfidence on the probability of corporate bankruptcy. Using a large dataset of UK firms, we find that firms with overconfident CEOs face a greater risk of failure. The presence of overconfident CEOs leads to a higher risk of bankruptcy in innovative environments, while the impact is insignificant in non-innovative environments. Moreover, overconfident CEOs can increase the bankruptcy risk of firms with less conservative accounting. We find that banks, as major creditors, seem to play an important role in constraining CEO overconfidence, and hence in reducing the likelihood of bankruptcy. Finally, the impact of overconfidence on the probability of bankruptcy is stronger in firms with generalist CEOs than specialist CEOs.

本文研究了 CEO 过度自信对公司破产概率的影响。使用英国公司的大型数据集，我们发现 CEO 过度自信的公司面临更大的失败风险。过度自信的 CEO 在创新环境中会导致更高的破产风险，而在非创新环境中影响不大。此外，过于自信的 CEO 会增加会计不太保守的公司的破产风险。我们发现，作为主要债权人的银行似乎在抑制 CEO 过度自信方面发挥着重要作用，从而降低了破产的可能性。最后，在拥有通才 CEO 的公司中，过度自信对破产概率的影响要大于拥有专业 CEO 的公司。